1. Executive Summary: The Winter Forecast at a Glance
The outlook for the winter of 2025-26 in the United States presents a fundamental dichotomy, reflecting not just a split in expected weather patterns but also a stark contrast in forecasting methodologies. On one side stands the modern, science-driven consensus from institutions like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This forecast points to a high-probability scenario dominated by a weak La Niña event, which would lead to a classic “split winter” with cooler, wetter conditions across the northern tier of the country and warmer, drier conditions in the South.
On the other side, the traditional forecasts from publications like the Farmers’ Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac offer a different perspective. Their general theme is a “Mostly Mild—with Pockets of Wild” winter, which includes significant regional variations and, in some key areas like the Southeast, direct contradictions to the scientific models. These almanacs rely on proprietary, unverified formulas that incorporate celestial mechanics and historical patterns, representing a centuries-old tradition in weather prognostication.
For travelers and winter enthusiasts, this dual forecast provides a clear, albeit conflicting, roadmap. Those seeking snow and cold should look to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, which are the most likely beneficiaries of the expected La Niña pattern. Conversely, sun seekers will find the most reliable domestic warm-weather options in the Southwest. The most significant point of contention for travel planning is the South and Southeast, where scientific and traditional forecasts are in direct opposition. For long-range planning, particularly for travel and resource management, the transparent, probabilistic forecast from NOAA, grounded in global climate systems and physics, offers the most reliable guidance.
The following table provides a high-level comparison of the two forecasts.
Winter 2025-26 Forecast at a Glance: NOAA vs. The Almanacs
| U.S. Region | NOAA Temperature Outlook | NOAA Precipitation Outlook | Almanacs’ Temperature Outlook | Almanacs’ Precipitation/Snowfall Outlook |
| Pacific Northwest | Leaning Below Normal | Leaning Above Normal | Milder | Lighter-than-average snow |
| Northern Rockies | Likely Below Normal | Leaning Above Normal | Milder | Below/Near Normal snow |
| Southwest | Likely Above Normal | Likely Below Normal | Warmer | Below-average mountain snows |
| Central U.S. | Equal Chances | Equal Chances | Warmer | Below-normal snow (north) |
| South/Southeast | Likely Above Normal | Leaning Above Normal | Colder than Normal | Above-normal snow (east) |
| Northeast | Likely Above Normal | Leaning Above Normal | Milder | Below-average snow |
2. The Scientific Baseline: A La Niña-Driven Winter
The State of ENSO: A Transition to La Niña
Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate a state of ENSO-neutrality as of September 2025, but a gradual cooling trend is underway in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This cooling is a critical indicator of a potential shift in the global climate system. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has therefore issued a “La Niña Watch,” suggesting a high likelihood of a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions in the coming months. According to the CPC, there is a 71% chance of La Niña forming during October to December 2025, with a slightly lower, but still favored, 54% chance for the core winter period of December 2025 to February 2026.
The decrease in probability from the fall into the winter months is a key element of this forecast. Instead of being a sign of uncertainty or a flaw in the prediction, it is a transparent acknowledgment of the fundamental principles of atmospheric science. The further out a forecast extends, the more time there is for the dynamic and complex Earth system to evolve, introducing more variables that can influence the final outcome. This probabilistic approach, with its built-in capacity to account for diminishing certainty over time, is a hallmark of modern, data-driven climate science.
The Physics of the Forecast: How La Niña Influences U.S. Weather
The weather patterns associated with a La Niña event are not random; they are a direct physical consequence of the changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. During a La Niña, cooler waters near the equator influence the atmospheric circulation, causing the jet stream to adopt a specific, wave-like pattern across North America. This pattern is the primary driver of the “split” winter forecast.
The jet stream’s configuration during a La Niña event typically causes cold, moisture-rich air to plunge southward into the northern tier of the United States. Simultaneously, it creates a ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S., which diverts storm tracks and leads to warmer, drier conditions. NOAA’s seasonal outlook for January through March 2026 directly reflects this physical dynamic. The forecast shows a high probability for below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while simultaneously projecting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Southwest, South Central, and Southeast regions.
The Methodology of Modern Climate Prediction
Modern long-range forecasts from institutions like NOAA are fundamentally different from short-term weather predictions. While a daily forecast predicts the specific weather for a location at a given time (e.g., “rain at 3 PM”), a seasonal outlook projects the climate, or the average weather conditions, over a period of months. These long-range outlooks are not deterministic; they are expressed in terms of probabilities, such as a “60-80% chance of above-normal temperatures”.
This probabilistic approach is a reflection of the science itself. Forecasts are generated using powerful supercomputers that run global climate models (GCMs), which are complex programs consisting of thousands of equations that simulate the physical interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. These models are built on foundational physical laws, such as the conservation of energy and the ideal gas law. The probabilities in the outlook are derived from the outcomes of thousands of these model simulations, offering a statistically robust way to account for the inherent chaos and complexity of the Earth’s climate system. Therefore, a high probability for a certain outcome is not a guess; it represents a strong consensus across a vast number of scientific simulations.
3. The Traditional Outlook: What the Almanacs Predict
The “Mostly Mild—with Pockets of Wild” Forecast
The Farmers’ Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac have a more narrative-driven approach to their winter 2025-26 forecasts. The overarching theme is a “Mostly Mild—with Pockets of Wild” winter. While they predict that much of the country will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, they include specific, localized exceptions that create a sense of unique, almost folkloric, insight. For instance, the Farmers’ Almanac explicitly calls for a “sharper chill” in the Appalachians, Southeast, Florida, and the Ohio Valley. This approach is designed to resonate with a regional, traditional audience that values specific, digestible predictions over broad, probabilistic trends.
The “Secret” Formulas of the Almanacs
The methodologies behind the almanacs’ forecasts are a significant point of differentiation. The predictions are not based on modern, physics-based climate models. Instead, they are derived from proprietary “secret formulas” that have been passed down through generations of editors. These formulas reportedly incorporate factors such as sunspot activity, the tidal action of the Moon, and the position of the planets.
The almanacs frequently cite a self-reported accuracy rate of 80% to 85%. However, this claim has not been independently verified by scientific bodies. While The Old Farmer’s Almanac does acknowledge the use of modern data, such as teleconnections, it maintains that its core methodology is still rooted in the original founder’s belief that Earth’s weather is influenced by solar activity and celestial patterns. This fundamental difference in approach—relying on a correlation between celestial patterns and weather, rather than a simulation of a dynamic atmospheric system—is the primary reason for the contradictions that emerge when comparing the two forecasts.
4. Regional Forecast Breakdown: The Point of Contradiction
The conflict between the two forecasting models becomes most apparent when comparing their regional breakdowns. While some areas show a surprising degree of consensus, others demonstrate a complete divergence, creating a crucial decision point for travelers.
Regional Winter Forecast: NOAA vs. Almanacs Detailed Breakdown
Region: Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies
- NOAA Temperature Outlook: Leaning Below Normal (33-60%)/Likely Below Normal (40-70%)
- NOAA Precipitation Outlook: Leaning Above Normal (33-50%)/Leaning to Likely Above Normal (40-70%)
- Almanacs’ Temperature Outlook: Milder/A lighter-than-average snow season
- Almanacs’ Precipitation/Snowfall Outlook: Below/Near Normal snow, some heavy in south Appalachians
- Key Analysis/Contradiction: Strong agreement on winter sports potential. NOAA provides the physics (La Niña).
Region: Southwest
- NOAA Temperature Outlook: Likely Above Normal (60-80%)
- NOAA Precipitation Outlook: Likely Below Normal (60-80%)
- Almanacs’ Temperature Outlook: Warmer
- Almanacs’ Precipitation/Snowfall Outlook: Below-average mountain snows
- Key Analysis/Contradiction: A rare point of consensus, reinforcing the high probability of a warm, dry winter.
Region: Southeast & Appalachians
- NOAA Temperature Outlook: Likely Above Normal (60-80%)
- NOAA Precipitation Outlook: Leaning Above Normal (33-50%)
- Almanacs’ Temperature Outlook: Colder-than-normal
- Almanacs’ Precipitation/Snowfall Outlook: Above-normal snowfall in the east (Southeast) and south (Appalachians)
- Key Analysis/Contradiction: Direct Contradiction. This is the most significant divergence. NOAA’s forecast is a classic La Niña signal.
Region: Northeast
- NOAA Temperature Outlook: Likely Above Normal (70-90%)
- NOAA Precipitation Outlook: Leaning Above Normal (33-50%)
- Almanacs’ Temperature Outlook: Milder
- Almanacs’ Precipitation/Snowfall Outlook: Below-normal precipitation and snowfall
- Key Analysis/Contradiction: Nuanced contradiction. Both agree on warmer temperatures, but disagree on moisture, which is key for snow lovers.
Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies: A Clear Win for Winter Sports
For winter sports enthusiasts, this region offers the most promising outlook. The NOAA forecast indicates a strong signal for cooler, wetter conditions, with a high probability (40-70%) for below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the Northern Rockies and Plains. This aligns perfectly with the classic impacts of a La Niña pattern, which historically favors increased snowfall in the northwestern U.S., northern Rockies, and even Western British Columbia. The almanacs’ forecasts for these regions are less specific but also suggest a good winter with some pockets of snow. The strong scientific consensus gives travelers a high degree of confidence when planning ski trips to this region.
The Southwest: A Likely Loss for Snowpack
The outlook for the Southwest is an area of rare agreement between the two forecasts. The NOAA forecast presents a strong signal for warmer and drier conditions, with a high probability (60-80%) of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. This is the expected impact of the La Niña-influenced jet stream, which typically diverts moisture away from the southern U.S.. The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s forecast for the Pacific Southwest also calls for a “warmer and drier winter” with “below-average mountain snowfall”. This consensus provides a clear, high-probability outcome for this region, likely leading to reduced snowpack and increased drought risk.
The Southeast & Appalachians: The Most Dramatic Contradiction
The most significant and dramatic divergence in the winter forecast occurs in the Southeast and Appalachians. The scientific forecast from NOAA clearly signals above-normal temperatures for the Southeast and South Central regions, with a 60-80% probability This warm and wet pattern is a textbook La Niña signal. In a direct contradiction, both the Farmers’ Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast a
colder-than-normal winter for the Southeast and Appalachians, with some areas even expecting above-normal snowfall. This single, point-for-point conflict highlights the fundamental difference in the methodologies used by the two forecasting sources.
The Northeast: A Nuanced Picture
The contradiction in the Northeast is more subtle. Both NOAA and The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast above-normal temperatures for the region. However, their precipitation forecasts differ. NOAA’s outlook shows a leaning probability for above-average precipitation (33-50%) , while The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts below-normal precipitation and below-average snowfall. For a traveler, this distinction is crucial. NOAA’s forecast suggests that while the winter will be warmer, it may also be wetter, potentially leading to “variable snow quality” with more rain than snow. In contrast, the almanac’s forecast suggests a milder, drier winter overall with less snow to worry about.
5. Transparent Analysis: A Tale of Two Methodologies
The Methodologies in a Mismatch
The discrepancies in the regional forecasts stem directly from a fundamental difference in how each source approaches long-term prediction. Modern climate science, as employed by NOAA’s CPC, is built to simulate a dynamic system. The Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land are in a constant state of flux, governed by complex, nonlinear physical laws. NOAA’s models are designed to evolve with this system, using vast amounts of real-time data to forecast how the system will change over time. In contrast, the almanacs’ methodologies are based on the repeatable, predictable motions of celestial bodies. This approach assumes a fixed, causal relationship between a static, external system (the moon, sunspots) and the ever-changing, internal climate system. This fundamental methodological mismatch explains why the two forecasts often arrive at completely different conclusions, particularly in regions where the La Niña signal is strongest.
Analyzing the Discrepancies
The inherent complexity of the climate system means that even a strong signal like La Niña is not an absolute guarantee. A prime example is the 2022-23 winter, which, despite a strong La Niña pattern, saw record-breaking snowfall in parts of California and Utah that are typically dry during such events. This anomaly was due to the influence of other climate factors, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which can temporarily override the primary ENSO signal.
This real-world example is a powerful justification for the use of a probabilistic forecasting system. NOAA’s forecast, with its percentages, acknowledges that these other factors exist and can influence the outcome, meaning that even a highly likely scenario is not guaranteed. In contrast, a forecast that promises specific weather on a specific date cannot account for these other, shorter-term atmospheric fluctuations. Understanding this difference is key to interpreting a long-range forecast and preparing for the variability that is an inherent part of the Earth’s climate system.
6. The Winter 2025-26 Traveler’s Guide
For the Powder Hound: Where to Chase the Cold and Snow
Based on the strong La Niña signal and its historical impacts, the best destinations for skiers and snowboarders will be in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Resorts like Mt. Baker and Timberline Lodge, both known for their record-setting snowfall during past La Niña events, are excellent choices. Lookout Pass in Idaho and Montana is also a strong contender, as the pattern of cooler, wetter conditions is highly favorable for snowpack accumulation in this region. Travelers should use this forecast for high-level planning but always consult daily forecasts before and during their trip.
For the Sun Seeker: A Warm-Weather Escape
For those looking to escape the cold, the scientific forecast provides a clear path. The Southwest, including California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, is likely to be warmer and drier than normal, making it an ideal destination for winter hiking, exploring, and other outdoor activities. Domestic options in the South Central and Southeast regions also have a high probability of warmer-than-average temperatures. For a guaranteed warm-weather getaway, international destinations like Hawaii, Mexico, the Caribbean, Costa Rica, or even a trip to the Southern Hemisphere to places like New Zealand or Australia provide reliable options.
Preparation for All: Beyond the Forecast
Regardless of where one travels, preparedness is paramount. The first snow of the season is already expected in high-altitude areas of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado as early as September, signaling the transition to winter in the mountain West. Travelers heading to these regions should be prepared for winter driving and cold conditions from the early fall. Even in areas forecasted to be mild, a cold snap can occur due to shorter-term weather fluctuations. The most effective strategy is to use the seasonal outlook for general planning but to rely on short-term, daily forecasts for real-time safety and preparation.
Frequently Asked Questions (
Are the Farmers’ Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac the same?
No, they are two separate publications with different publishing teams and different forecasting methodologies. Their winter 2025-26 predictions are also in conflict.
Does La Niña guarantee a good ski season?
While La Niña patterns are a good indicator of a strong ski season in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, they do not guarantee perfect conditions. A successful season still depends on the specific tracks of storms.
How can I stay up-to-date on the winter forecast?
Keep an eye on official sources like NOAA and reputable weather websites. And, of course, check back with triptravelingguide.com for updated travel advice and analysis!
How do the almanacs create their forecasts?
They use proprietary, centuries-old formulas based on factors like sunspot activity, lunar cycles, and historical weather patterns. The exact formulas are kept secret.
Should I cancel my travel plans based on a long-range forecast?
Long-range forecasts are best used for general planning, not for making or canceling specific travel reservations. They are indicators of a likely trend, not a guarantee of daily weather.
What does “above-average precipitation” mean in a warm region?
For a warmer region, “above-average precipitation” most likely means more rain than normal, not more snow.
What is La Niña and how does it affect U.S. weather?
La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It typically leads to a cooler and wetter winter in the Northern U.S. and a warmer and drier winter in the Southern U.S.
When will the final, official winter forecast be released?
Official government bodies like NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update their seasonal outlooks periodically, with more detailed information becoming available closer to winter.
Which forecast is more accurate?
Scientific forecasts from organizations like NOAA have a higher historical accuracy rate and are based on peer-reviewed models. However, the almanacs have also had notable successes, especially in predicting general trends.
Will this winter be the same across the entire country?
No. Both scientific and traditional forecasts show significant regional differences. The Northern U.S. is expected to have a very different winter than the Southwest, for example.
7. Conclusion: The Power of Informed Planning
In the ongoing debate between La Niña and the Almanacs, the evidence points to a clear winner for the purpose of long-range travel planning. While the almanacs offer a compelling, narrative-rich alternative, their proprietary, unverified methodology is fundamentally at odds with the dynamic nature of the Earth’s climate system. In contrast, the scientific, probabilistic forecast from NOAA provides a transparent and reliable guide. It is grounded in the laws of physics and the consensus of thousands of model simulations, offering a nuanced view of what is most likely to occur. The key is not to seek a perfect, deterministic prediction, which is impossible, but to embrace informed planning. By understanding the underlying science and the probabilities involved, travelers can make the most well-reasoned decisions and fully prepare for the winter ahead.
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