Snow forecast accuracy

1.7 inches off, one day out

That is the real average error, based on 754 station comparisons. Nobody prints that number. We did. Photo: Famartin, CC BY-SA.

Where the data comes from

It starts with a balloon

Weather balloons, radar and satellites feed every model a snow forecast depends on. Photo: NOAA.

Ground truth

This is what gets measured

Stations like this one are how a forecast gets checked against what actually fell. Photo: USDA NRCS Montana.

The source that matters

Free, and no login required

The National Weather Service's own point forecast beats most apps inside a week. Photo: Chris Light, CC BY-SA.

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The bigger the storm, the bigger the miss

Storms over 10 inches got under-forecast the most. See the full lead-time data and why.

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