A mild winter forecast doesn't rule out a severe cold snap. Diagram: NOAA.
ECMWF and UK Met Office seasonal guidance both flag this window to watch.
Strong El Nino winters see larger average stratospheric disruptions, per 2024 research.
NOAA's official toll from the Texas freeze, triggered by a stratospheric warming event.
This risk isn't exclusive to El Nino years. See the full guide for what that means.
The seasonal signal, the research, and the honest limits of this forecast.