White Christmas 2026

What are your real odds?

NOAA's data says 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7am, Dec 25. Here is how often that happens, by city.

The definition

1 inch of snow

On the ground at 7am, December 25. That is NOAA's official rule, not a guess.

Best odds

Alaska: 84%

Minnesota, Vermont and Maine all sit above 74% too.

Lowest odds

Georgia: 0.4%

Florida and Hawaii sit at 0%. The whole Deep South runs under 1%.

This year

El Nino changes it

NOAA gives over 90% odds of a very strong El Nino. See the full guide.

The long game

Odds are shrinking

A Penn State scientist says warming narrows the window for snow, except near the Great Lakes. See why.

Read the full guide