New York Winter Forecast 2026-2027: What 156 Years of Data Show
NOAA expects a historic El Nino. In New York's last 7 strong El Nino winters, Central Park landed at a median of 42 percent of normal snowfall.
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New York's winter forecast for 2026-2027 turns on an El Nino that NOAA calls the strongest in its 76-year record, and on which New York you mean. Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK and Newark do not report the same snowfall, and last winter alone ran 46 percent above normal at the official station. We pulled 156 years of NOAA data to see what strong El Nino winters have actually done here.
What is the winter forecast for New York in 2026-2027?
Milder and slightly less snowy than normal, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac, with the Farmers' Almanac calling the pattern simply variable. NOAA has not issued a full winter outlook yet, but its El Nino data points to a strong to historic event, above-normal temperatures, and no single reliable number for total inches.
That NOAA has not yet published a 2026-27 outlook matters. The federal outlook usually arrives in October or November, so any page already quoting one for this season is citing something that does not exist. What does exist is 156 years of Central Park snow records against which this El Nino can be measured directly.
What does NOAA say about winter 2026-2027 in New York?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the Nino-3.4 index at plus 1.4 degrees in its ENSO diagnostic discussion, issued 13 August 2026, and gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Nino this fall and winter.
The same discussion put the odds at 69 percent for a historic event that would exceed every El Nino on record back to 1950. Its next update is due 10 September 2026. NOAA's own winter outlook, the product that covers temperature and precipitation odds, is not out yet and typically does not appear before October.
What does the Old Farmer's Almanac predict for New York?
Milder than normal with slightly below-normal snowfall, according to this almanac's own numbers. New York City sits in its Atlantic Corridor region, and the 2026-2027 forecast page, updated 31 August 2026, calls for above-normal temperatures across the whole region this coming season.
Its coldest stretches are flagged for early to mid-December, early to mid-January, and early and late February. The snowiest periods it names are late November, early and mid-January, early and late February, and late March, though it gives no figure in inches for the city itself.
What does the Farmers' Almanac predict for New York?
A changeable winter rather than a clearly mild or clearly harsh one. New York falls in the almanac's Zone 1, grouped with the rest of the Northeast and New England, and its 2026-2027 forecast, updated 3 September 2026, describes cold snaps followed by mild stretches.
Its precipitation outlook calls rain more likely than extended snow periods, near normal in total, with snow risk described as moderate: possible but not persistent. Like every seasonal almanac forecast we have checked, it publishes no snowfall figure in inches for any specific city.
Will it snow in New York this winter?
Almost certainly yes, just probably less than the 1991-2020 normal. Every one of the last 156 winters at Central Park has produced measurable snow, including the driest strong El Nino winter on record, which still managed 2.8 inches. The open question is how much, not whether.
Across seven strong El Nino winters since 1957, Central Park's median finished at 42 percent of its own normal. That is a real below-normal lean, not a snow-free winter, and it says nothing about any individual storm this season.
Does it snow in New York City every year?
Yes, every single season since daily records began at Central Park in 1869 has recorded at least some measurable snowfall. The lightest year on our record, 1972-73, still reached 2.8 inches. A winter with no snow at all has never happened here in a century and a half of observation.
Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK, or Newark: which station's numbers should you trust?
Central Park, if you want one number, because it is the official climate station with a continuous record back to 1869 and the one NOAA and NWS both use as "New York City." The three airports run their own gauges and regularly report different totals in the same storm.
Last winter, Central Park logged 43.4 inches while Newark logged 54.5, an 11-inch gap between two sites about 15 miles apart. We report all four below rather than pick one, because which station matters depends on which part of the metro you actually mean.
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How much snow does New York get in a strong El Nino winter?
Around 42 percent of normal at Central Park, the median across seven strong El Nino winters since 1957. LaGuardia and Newark land close behind at 48 and 44 percent, while JFK's median sits at 45 percent on the six winters its record can support.
| Winter | ONI (DJF) | Central Park | LaGuardia | JFK | Newark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957-58 | +1.69 | 44.7" | 51.5" | no data | 58.3" |
| 1972-73 | +1.55 | 2.8" | 1.9" | 1.6" | 1.9" |
| 1982-83 | +2.14 | 27.2" | 30.2" | 32.1" | 31.0" |
| 1991-92 | +1.54 | 12.6" | 14.3" | 10.5" | 13.9" |
| 1997-98 | +2.22 | 5.5" | 7.1" | 3.6" | 6.9" |
| 2015-16 | +2.50 | 32.8" | 36.2" | 41.4" | 32.8" |
| 2023-24 | +1.84 | 7.5" | 10.5" | 12.8" | 12.2" |
| Median % of normal | 42% (7) | 48% (7) | 45% (6) | 44% (7) |
JFK is missing 1957-58 entirely: its snow element returns no data for the whole of the 1950s, a station-wide gap we found no way to fix, not a single missing storm. Central Park, LaGuardia and Newark all have complete records for that season, so their seven-winter medians include it.
Does a very strong El Nino change the numbers?
Not toward less snow. Isolating the three winters that reached "very strong" strength, ONI at or above plus 2.0, Central Park's median jumps to 91 percent of normal, LaGuardia to 101 percent, JFK to 124 percent and Newark to 98 percent, all well above the seven-winter figures.
Those three winters are 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, and NOAA's own numbers put this coming El Nino in that same very-strong bracket. The small sample size means this is a real signal worth stating, not a promise: three winters is not a large base to build certainty on.
How did last winter (2025-26) go?
Snowier than normal almost everywhere. Central Park finished at 43.4 inches, 146 percent of its normal, with LaGuardia at 45.6, JFK at 45.4 and Newark at 54.5. It followed a decade-long stretch of mostly below-normal winters, which is part of why it stood out.
Two storms drove most of the total. The National Weather Service's New York office measured 11.4 inches at Central Park from the storm of 25-26 January 2026, and a bomb cyclone on 22-23 February 2026 added 19.7 inches, the ninth-biggest snowstorm in the city's recorded history.
How do the last five winters compare?
Unevenly, with one dry season pulling the average down hard. 2022-23 managed only 2.3 inches at Central Park, a fifth of normal, sandwiched between a well-above-normal 2020-21 at 38.6 inches and a last winter that landed at 146 percent of normal.
| Winter | Central Park | LaGuardia | JFK | Newark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 38.6" | 35.3" | 34.5" | 45.7" |
| 2021-22 | 17.9" | 25.3" | 21.7" | 17.9" |
| 2022-23 | 2.3" | 3.4" | 2.1" | 2.7" |
| 2023-24 | 7.5" | 10.5" | 12.8" | 12.2" |
| 2025-26 | 43.4" | 45.6" | 45.4" | 54.5" |
| 1991-2020 normal | 29.8" | 29.8" | 25.9" | 31.5" |
When does it usually start snowing in New York?
Mid-December, on average, with a wide range around that midpoint. Central Park's median date for the season's first inch of snow is 16 December across 156 years of record, but the earliest on record arrived 29 October 2011 and the latest waited until 22 March 1998.
What is New York's biggest snowstorm on record?
The storm of 22-24 January 2016, which dropped 27.5 inches at Central Park over three days. It surpassed the previous record, 26.9 inches set 11-12 February 2006, a total confirmed by NOAA's own review of the measurement after the fact.
That February 2006 figure is a two-day storm total, not a single-day record: our data shows 2.8 inches fell on 11 February and 24.1 on 12 February. Treating 26.9 inches as one day's snowfall is a common error worth avoiding.
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What is New York's snowiest single calendar day on record?
23 January 2016, when Central Park recorded 27.3 inches in one calendar day, the highest daily total in the station's 156-year history. It fell during the same three-day storm that also holds the multi-day record, but the single-day and storm-total figures are two different measurements.
The next-highest single day is 26.1 inches on 26 December 1947, part of a two-day storm that totaled 26.4 inches. Some older accounts cite 25.8 inches for that 1947 storm; the current official NWS climate record does not support that figure.
What was New York's snowiest winter on record?
1995-96, when Central Park recorded 75.6 inches for the season, more than double the station's own normal. It remains the single snowiest winter in the 156 years NOAA has kept daily records here, and no season since has come within 30 inches of it.
Will New York have a white Christmas in 2026?
Unlikely, on the long-run record, and less likely still on the recent one. Central Park has had at least an inch of snow on the ground on 25 December in 16 of 108 recorded years, 14.8 percent, but only 3 of the last 44 years, 6.8 percent.
That gap between the long-run rate and the recent one is real, not a rounding artifact, and it lines up with the wider decline in snowy winters this site's other guides have found. A white Christmas in New York is closer to a lucky exception than a tradition at this point.
Should you cancel travel plans based on this forecast?
No single storm can be predicted from a seasonal signal, and both almanacs are candid that they describe a season's character rather than any specific date. Even 1995-96, the snowiest winter on record, followed no discernible pattern that a forecast issued in September could have caught.
Our own station data backs that caution up. Strong El Nino winters here have ranged from 2.8 inches to 44.7 inches at the same station, so a lean toward below-normal snow is not the same thing as a promise of a quiet winter.
What should you check closer to your travel date?
The National Weather Service's New York forecast office for anything inside a seven-day window, since that is the range NOAA itself says is reliable for actual snowfall. Seasonal outlooks are useful for planning around a season, not for betting on one specific weekend.
The limits of this analysis
Four limits, stated plainly. Seven strong El Nino winters, three of them very strong, is a small sample: enough to see a tilt, not enough to promise an outcome. JFK's data gap in the 1950s means its figures rest on six seasons, not seven, noted rather than papered over.
Airport stations are not Central Park, and Central Park is not the whole metro: Newark alone averaged nearly 2 inches more than Central Park across the same seven winters, and the outer boroughs and suburbs can differ from all four gauges here. This is a description of the record, not a forecast of any single storm, and no one, including NOAA, can supply that from a seasonal outlook.
Sources
- NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System (ACIS). Daily and monthly snowfall for Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK and Newark, 1869 to 2026.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 13 August 2026.
- The Old Farmer's Almanac, 2026-2027 winter forecast, updated 31 August 2026.
- Farmers' Almanac, 2026-2027 winter weather forecast, updated 3 September 2026.
- National Weather Service New York, Public Information Statement on the 25-26 January 2026 storm.
- National Weather Service New York, Biggest Snowstorms at Central Park.
New York sits alongside 35 other US cities in our nationwide look at strong El Nino winters, and the same station-first approach covers how Chicago and Pittsburgh fare in this pattern, and how the Farmers' Almanac has actually scored against real outcomes.
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