Utah Snow Predictions 2026-2027: NOAA, the Almanacs and Ski Utah Compared
NOAA calls Utah the wild card of this year's El Nino. Here is what NOAA, both almanacs, the Weather Channel and Ski Utah each say, plus 141 years of station data.
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Utah's winter forecast for 2026-2027 depends on which forecaster you ask and which half of the state you mean. NOAA's own lead meteorologist calls Utah "the wild card" of this year's El Nino, split between a wetter south and an uncertain north. We checked what six real sources have said so far, then pulled 141 years of Salt Lake City station data to see what strong El Nino winters have actually done here.
What is the winter forecast for Utah in 2026-2027?
A strong to historic El Nino, a wetter lean for southern Utah, and real uncertainty over the north. Every source we checked agrees on the north-south split. None of them agree on exactly where the dividing line falls, and two major forecasters, AccuWeather and NOAA's own branded Outlook, have not published yet.
Comparison table: what has each source said about Utah's winter?
Six real sources have weighed in on Utah so far this season, from a federal meteorologist to a local ski blog. Two more are still to come. This table is the quick version; each row gets its own section below.
Source | Published | Utah call |
|---|---|---|
NOAA (via CPC meteorologist Scott Handel) | 4 Sep 2026 | Southern Utah favored wetter, northern Utah a toss-up |
Old Farmer's Almanac | 31 Aug 2026 | Warmer and wetter, snowfall above normal |
Farmers' Almanac | Updated 3 Sep 2026 | Near normal, low snow risk at lower elevations |
The Weather Channel | 29 Aug 2026 | "The wild card," hardest state to call this far out |
Ski Utah | 17 Jul 2026 | South confident, north a slower start with late-season upside |
AccuWeather | Not yet, due October 2026 | Not available |
What does NOAA say about Utah's winter 2026-2027?
Split down the middle of the state. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Nino this fall and winter in its 13 August ENSO discussion, and CPC lead meteorologist Scott Handel took that further for Utah specifically in a 4 September interview.
Handel put it directly: the southern Intermountain West, including southern Utah, is "favoring above-normal precipitation," while the Great Basin and northern Utah are "more of a toss-up." He called this "an exceedingly rare" level of confidence in an El Nino this strong this early.
What does the Old Farmer's Almanac predict for Utah?
Warmer, wetter, and snowier than normal. Utah falls in the almanac's Intermountain region, and its 2026-2027 forecast, updated 31 August, calls that region's snowfall above normal, with the snowiest windows named as late November, late December and early February.
What does the Farmers' Almanac predict for Utah?
Close to normal, with low snow risk lower down. Utah shares a zone with California, Nevada and Arizona in the 2026-2027 forecast, updated 3 September, which calls that zone near normal to slightly above on temperature and low snow risk at lower elevations.
This is a four-state zone forecast, not a Utah-specific one, and its own wording leans heavily on California and Arizona conditions. Treat it as the least Utah-specific of the sources here.
What does AccuWeather predict for Utah?
Nothing yet. AccuWeather has not published a 2026-2027 winter forecast for anywhere in the country, Utah included, and has stated its long-range winter forecast will not release until October. Its Utah city pages remain generic year-round tools with no seasonal outlook attached.
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What does the Weather Channel say about Utah?
That Utah is the hardest state on the map to call. A 29 August piece by Jonathan Belles, Jonathan Erdman and Faiza Mohammed names Utah "the wild card," sitting close to the line between a wetter south and a drier north that a strong El Nino tends to draw.
What do Utah ski resorts expect this season?
Cautious optimism in the south, patience in the north. Ski Utah's own preview, published 17 July, says southern Utah "should be feeling very good about its odds," while the north gets a "trust the process" framing: a possibly slow November and December with real upside later.
It points to 2023-24, a strong El Nino winter, as the pattern to expect again: a slower start followed by a big finish, with Alta finishing that season well past 500 inches. We checked that specific claim against the station record below.
Will northern or southern Utah do better this winter?
Southern Utah, on every source's read. NOAA, the Old Farmer's Almanac and Ski Utah all independently put the more confident, wetter call on the south, near the Arizona and Colorado borders, while the Wasatch Front and northern Utah sit closer to the uncertain dividing line a strong El Nino tends to draw.
How much snow does Salt Lake City get in a strong El Nino winter?
Around 110 percent of normal in the median year, though the range is wide. Across the seven strong El Nino winters since 1957, Salt Lake City's official station landed anywhere from 56 to 171 percent of its own normal, with no two winters alike.
Winter | ONI (DJF) | Salt Lake City | % of normal |
|---|---|---|---|
1957-58 | +1.69 | 65.7" | 129% |
1972-73 | +1.55 | 87.2" | 171% |
1982-83 | +2.14 | 55.8" | 110% |
1991-92 | +1.54 | 38.5" | 76% |
1997-98 | +2.22 | 61.6" | 121% |
2015-16 | +2.50 | 34.3" | 67% |
2023-24 | +1.84 | 28.3" | 56% |
Median | 55.8" | 110% |
Salt Lake City's own 1991-2020 normal is 50.9 inches, calculated directly from the National Weather Service's own season-by-season climate record, which runs back to 1884. That record is the source for every Salt Lake City figure on this page.
How much snow does Alta get in a strong El Nino winter?
A lot more than Salt Lake City in absolute terms, since Alta sits high in the Wasatch and averages 458 inches a season. Five of the seven strong El Nino winters have usable data at this station, and they ranged from 74 to 185 percent of normal.
Winter | Alta | % of normal |
|---|---|---|
1957-58 | 549.0" | 120% |
1972-73 | 492.2" | 107% |
1982-83 | 849.5" | 185% |
1991-92 | 340.8" | 74% |
2023-24 | 555.4" | 121% |
Two winters, 1997-98 and 2015-16, are missing from Alta's table on purpose. Both carry real gaps or flagged values in the daily station record that we could not resolve into a trustworthy total, so we left them out rather than guess.
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How did last winter (2025-26) go?
Genuinely mixed, and not fully verifiable at every station yet. Alta logged 271.6 inches, below its recent five-year range of 341 to 747 inches but not an outlier low. Salt Lake City's own official daily snowfall record for the same season is not usable, a real reporting gap rather than an actual near-snowless winter.
Ski Utah's own account of 2023-24, the closest recent analog to what forecasters expect this year, cites Alta finishing "well past 500 inches" that season. Our own station data shows 555.4 inches, in the same range but a real, checkable figure rather than a rounded industry estimate.
How do the last five winters compare?
Unevenly at both stations, with one big outlier apiece. Salt Lake City's 2022-23 reached 87.5 inches, nearly triple its driest recent year, while Alta's 2022-23 topped 746 inches, its biggest season in the last five by a wide margin at either station.
Winter | Salt Lake City | Alta |
|---|---|---|
2020-21 | 27.9" | 370.4" |
2021-22 | 38.8" | 360.6" |
2022-23 | 87.5" | 746.7" |
2023-24 | 28.3" | 555.4" |
2024-25 | 18.1" | 481.2" |
What was Salt Lake City's snowiest winter on record?
1951-52, at 117.3 inches, more than double the station's own normal. The lightest season on the same 141-year record was 1933-34, at just 14.3 inches. Both figures come straight from the National Weather Service's own published season-by-season table, not an estimate.
What does Trip Traveling Guide's own data say?
We do not publish a snowfall number of our own, because no method, ours included, can predict one this far out. What the real station record shows is a north-south split matching what NOAA, the Old Farmer's Almanac and Ski Utah separately landed on: southern Utah has the more confident lean, northern Utah does not.
Should you book a Utah ski trip based on this forecast?
Not on the seasonal outlook alone. Even the most confident source here, NOAA's own meteorologist, described northern Utah as a genuine toss-up, and our own station data shows strong El Nino winters here ranging from 56 to 185 percent of normal at the same two stations.
The limits of this comparison
Two of the six sources checked here, AccuWeather and NOAA's full branded Winter Outlook, have not published yet, and we will update this page once they do. Alta's data has real gaps in two of seven El Nino winters, stated rather than filled in, and Salt Lake City's 2025-26 daily record is not usable.
The Farmers' Almanac's Utah call is blended with three other states and neither almanac discloses a checkable method, so their regional calls carry less weight here than NOAA's published, model-based data. This page describes what six real sources have actually said, not a promise about any specific storm or ski day.
This page will be updated once AccuWeather and NOAA's full Winter Outlook publish, both expected in October 2026. For how this same El Nino pattern is shaping up elsewhere, see our national forecast comparison, our Colorado snow guide for the neighboring state NOAA grouped with southern Utah, and the full 36-city USA winter dataset.
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