Illinois Snow Predictions 2026-2027: North vs South
Will Illinois have a snowy winter in 2026-2027? NOAA, Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac compared, plus the real north-south snowfall gap: 38 inches at Chicago vs 11 at Carbondale.
Advertisement
Illinois's winter forecast for 2026-2027 depends heavily on which Illinois you mean. The state stretches nearly 400 miles north to south, and its normal snowfall drops from 37 inches a season in Rockford to barely 11 inches in Carbondale, a bigger gap than most entire regions see. Add a strong El Nino into the mix, and NOAA, the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac each describe this winter a little differently.
Snow-covered farmland in central Illinois, February 2018. Photo: Ron Frazier, CC BY 2.0.
Will it snow in Illinois this winter?
Yes, everywhere in the state, though not by the same amount. Northern Illinois typically sees 30 to 40 inches of snow a season, central Illinois around 20, and the far south under 15, so "will it snow" has one answer and "how much" has three very different ones depending on where you are.
What kind of winter is Illinois getting in 2026-2027?
Milder than normal is the common thread, but the three forecasters we checked do not fully agree on what that means for snow. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center leans toward a warmer, drier winter for Illinois without publishing a specific snowfall total, the Old Farmer's Almanac calls for near to below normal snow, and the Farmers' Almanac expects near-normal snow delivered in sharp, brief bursts rather than a steady total.
What does NOAA's El Nino forecast say about Illinois snow?
Above-average temperatures and a drier lean, strongest across the Chicago area and northern Illinois. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Nino this fall and winter, with a real possibility it becomes the strongest El Nino on record back to 1950.
For Illinois, the Climate Prediction Center currently favors above-average temperatures, especially in the north, while its precipitation outlook gives equal chances of above, near or below normal. NOAA does not publish a seasonal snowfall total, but a milder, drier pattern historically tends to mean less snow than a typical year, not a snow-free one.
What does the Farmers' Almanac predict for Illinois this winter?
Near-normal temperatures with real volatility, grouping Illinois into its wider Great Lakes and Midwest zone. The Farmers' Almanac's 2026-2027 outlook describes fast-moving clippers, sudden cold snaps and brief snowy periods for the region, broken up by milder stretches, rather than one long snowy season.
It also notes that El Nino winters do not always behave the same way in the Midwest, though it points to the University of Illinois's own climate research as historically linking El Nino winters here to warmer, drier conditions overall.
What does the Old Farmer's Almanac predict for Illinois this winter?
A relatively mild winter with snowfall near to below normal, though Illinois spans three of the Old Farmer's Almanac's own forecast regions depending on where in the state you are. Northern Illinois falls in its Upper Midwest zone, expected to run warmer before turning colder later in the season. Central and eastern Illinois sit in the Lower Lakes zone, forecast warmer than normal with above-normal precipitation and near to below normal snow. Southern Illinois falls in its Heartland zone, called warmer and wetter with near to below normal snow.
Across all three zones, the almanac's coldest stretch lands mid- to late January, with its best snow chances in early and late January, late February and early March.
NOAA vs Farmers' Almanac vs Old Farmer's Almanac: where they agree and disagree
All three agree Illinois runs milder than a typical winter this year, driven by the same strong El Nino. On snow, NOAA and the Old Farmer's Almanac both lean toward less than normal, while the Farmers' Almanac expects something closer to a normal total, just delivered in short, sharp bursts instead of steady accumulation.
Advertisement
Source | Temperature call | Snowfall call | Notable timing |
|---|---|---|---|
NOAA Climate Prediction Center | Above average, strongest in the north | No seasonal total, milder and drier lean | Pattern holds through the season |
Farmers' Almanac | Near normal, volatile | Near normal, in sharp brief bursts | Scattered through winter |
Old Farmer's Almanac | Warmer than normal statewide | Near to below normal | Coldest mid-to-late January |
Three forecasters, three slightly different pictures for the same Illinois winter.
Why is there such a big snowfall gap between northern and southern Illinois?
Distance from the Great Lakes and distance from the Gulf of Mexico's warm, moist air both matter, and they pull in opposite directions as you move south. Northern Illinois sits close enough to Lake Michigan to catch some lake-effect snow and stays firmly inside the path of Alberta clippers and Arctic air all winter, while southern Illinois sits far enough south that more winter storms arrive as rain or a rain-snow mix instead of pure snow.
The result is one of the sharpest intrastate snowfall gradients in the country: normal seasonal snowfall runs about 36 inches in the far north and under 10 inches in the state's southern tip, with first snow dates that run almost a month apart, late November near Chicago versus late December in the south.
Rockford and Chicago both average over three times what Carbondale gets in a typical winter, inside the same state.
How much snow does each part of Illinois get in a normal year?
Around 37 to 38 inches in the north, roughly 22 in the center, and about 11 in the far south, using National Weather Service 1991-2020 climate normals for Rockford, Chicago's O'Hare, Springfield and Carbondale.
City | Region | 1991-2020 seasonal normal | Record season |
|---|---|---|---|
Rockford | North | 37.1 in | 72.9 in (2007-08) |
Chicago (O'Hare) | North | 38.4 in | 83.7 in (1978-79) |
Springfield | Central | not in this guide's source set | 45.0 in (1981-82) |
Carbondale | South | 11.4 in (annual average) | not in this guide's source set |
Our Chicago winter guide goes deeper on the city's own stations, including how O'Hare, Midway and Rockford have behaved in past strong El Nino winters specifically.
What is Illinois's biggest snowstorm on record?
The heaviest 24-hour snowfall in state history is 36 to 41 inches, measured at Astoria in west-central Illinois on 28 February 1900. Chicago's own worst storm came later, on 26-27 January 1967, when 23 inches fell on the city in about 29 hours, a record that still stands for Chicago specifically.
Advertisement
What was Illinois's snowiest winter on record?
1978-79, statewide, with 105.1 inches of snow measured across the state that season, the most of any winter on record in Illinois. That same winter also set Chicago's own O'Hare record at 83.7 inches, by ocean-temperature index an unremarkable neutral winter rather than a strong El Nino or La Nina, a reminder that the record season on the books was not driven by the same pattern shaping this winter's forecast.
When does it usually start snowing in Illinois?
Around 20 November near Chicago, and not until about 20 December in the southern tip of the state, almost a full month later for the same first inch of snow. Our first snow date guide covers the wider region in more detail, including how far the actual date can swing from that average in any single year.
What does this mean for winter travel in Illinois?
Where in the state you are traveling matters more than the statewide headline. Our USA winter forecast hub compares NOAA and both almanacs across the whole country, and our Wisconsin snow guide covers the same strong-El-Nino winter just across the state line, where the three forecasters split in a similar way.
The Illinois State Capitol, Springfield, roughly in the state's much-lighter-snow central zone. Photo: Shalileh, CC BY-SA 4.0.
What are the limits of this forecast data?
A seasonal outlook describes a tendency across an entire winter for a whole state, and Illinois is one of the worst-fitting states for that kind of single statewide number given how much its own climate changes from north to south. NOAA does not give Illinois a specific snowfall figure at all, and the Old Farmer's Almanac splits the state across three different forecast zones rather than treating it as one region.
We have not merged the three sources into one number, and nothing in this guide predicts a specific snowfall total for 2026-2027 at any location. For a seasonal outlook to matter for a specific trip, check the National Weather Service's short-range forecast for your part of Illinois closer to your travel date rather than relying on any seasonal outlook alone.
Quick answers about Illinois's winter 2026-2027
Will Illinois have a snowy winter in 2026-2027?
Likely milder and a bit drier than normal statewide, per NOAA and the Old Farmer's Almanac, though the Farmers' Almanac expects near-normal snow in short, sharp bursts.
Will Illinois get a lot of snow this year?
Depends entirely on where in the state. Northern Illinois normally gets more than three times what the southern tip gets in an average year, regardless of this year's seasonal lean.
What kind of winter will Illinois have this year?
A strong El Nino winter, warmer than normal overall, with disagreement among forecasters on exactly how much snow that leaves for the state.
Does southern Illinois get much snow?
Not much. Carbondale averages around 11 inches a year, closer to parts of the Upper South than to Chicago's 38-inch normal.
What is Illinois's biggest snowstorm on record?
36 to 41 inches in 24 hours at Astoria, 28 February 1900, the heaviest single storm in state history.
What was Illinois's snowiest winter?
1978-79, with 105.1 inches measured statewide, the most of any winter on record, during what was actually a neutral ENSO year rather than a strong El Nino.
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion, 2026-2027 outlook
Farmers' Almanac 2026-2027 winter forecast
Old Farmer's Almanac 2026-2027 winter forecast
National Weather Service 1991-2020 climate normals and seasonal snowfall records, Rockford, Chicago O'Hare and Springfield
Current Results, Illinois annual snowfall by city
University of Illinois State Climatologist Office
Reporting on Illinois's 1900 Astoria storm, the 1967 Chicago blizzard and the 1978-79 statewide snowiest winter
Topics
Advertisement
