Wisconsin Snow Predictions 2026-2027: NOAA vs the Almanacs

Why does El Nino usually mean less snow for the Upper Midwest?

Because a strong El Nino tends to push the polar jet stream north, steering Arctic air and the heaviest storm tracks toward western Canada instead of the Great Lakes. Fewer cold outbreaks mean fewer and weaker snow-producing storms, and warmer air also means more of what does fall arrives as rain or a rain-snow mix rather than pure snow, which is the mechanism behind NOAA's and the Old Farmer's Almanac's below-normal lean for Wisconsin.

Can a big snowstorm still hit Wisconsin in an El Nino year?

Yes, and Wisconsin's own record proves it. The 1991 Halloween Blizzard, which struck during an El Nino winter, buried western Wisconsin alongside Minnesota: Brule measured 32.0 inches, Superior 31.5, Danbury 28.0, and Solon Springs 28.0. Two Wisconsin hunters died when their boat capsized on Lake Onalaska during the storm.

A seasonal lean toward less snow describes an average across the whole winter. It says nothing about whether any single storm will be severe, and Wisconsin's own history shows one can be, even in a winter that otherwise runs mild.

Wisconsin's snowiest winters in history: has this happened before?

Several times, and the record holder is not one of the state's big cities. Hurley, in the far northern Lake Superior snowbelt, holds Wisconsin's seasonal snowfall record at 295.4 inches in the winter of 1996-97, and averaged 174.4 inches a season between 1987 and 2010, making it one of the snowiest towns in the country east of the Rockies.

Statewide, the snowiest winter on record is 2018-19, when the state's average snowfall topped 57 inches. Madison's own record season came in 2007-08, at 101.4 inches, almost double its 1991-2020 normal. Wisconsin's heaviest single-day snowfall on record is 26 inches at Neillsville, set on 27 December 1904.

How much snow does Wisconsin get in a normal year?

Around 48 to 56 inches a season in the three biggest cities, with the far north running far higher thanks to the Lake Superior snowbelt. Madison's 1991-2020 normal is 51.8 inches, Milwaukee's is 48.7, and Green Bay's is 55.6, all from National Weather Service climate normals for each city's airport station.

Hurley, in the far north, averages more than three times what Wisconsin's three biggest cities get in a typical winter.

How much snow falls each month in Wisconsin?

Almost all of it between December and February, with January the single snowiest month. Milwaukee's 1991-2020 monthly normals, which add up exactly to its 48.7-inch seasonal total, show the season building from a light November and tapering off through March and April.

Madison's own monthly figures come from a separate NWS release and round slightly differently than its 51.8-inch seasonal normal, a small rounding gap rather than a contradiction. Either way, January and February together make up roughly half of an average Wisconsin winter's total snow.

Why does Hurley get so much more snow than the rest of Wisconsin?

Lake Superior. Hurley sits close enough to the lake's southern shore to catch heavy lake-effect snow, the same mechanism that buries towns on Lake Superior's Minnesota and Michigan shores: cold air crossing the open, relatively warm water picks up moisture and dumps it as snow on whatever land sits downwind. Madison, Milwaukee and Green Bay all sit further from the big lakes' heaviest lake-effect bands and rely mostly on ordinary storm systems instead.

Does Lake Michigan give eastern Wisconsin extra snow too?

Some, though less than Michigan's own shoreline gets from the same lake. Wisconsin sits on Lake Michigan's western shore, and the lake's lake-effect snowbands mostly form on the downwind, eastern side when the wind blows west to east, which usually pushes the heaviest totals toward Michigan rather than Wisconsin.

Southeastern Wisconsin's own lakeshore counties, Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee, still catch real lake-effect bursts when the wind direction cooperates, and Door County, surrounded by both Lake Michigan and Green Bay, sees its own lake-effect events from either side of the peninsula. Our Michigan snow guide covers the same lake-effect mechanism from the side of the lake that gets it worst.

Dusk over a frozen Lake Michigan, Wisconsin shoreline. Photo: Yinan Chen, CC BY 3.0.

How much snow has Wisconsin gotten in the last 10 years?

Swinging widely, from a quiet 25.4 inches to a heavy 66.6, with no clean pattern of consistently rising or falling totals. Madison's calendar-year snowfall totals over the last decade, measured at Dane County Regional Airport, show just how much one winter can differ from the next even without a strong El Nino forcing it.

These are calendar-year totals, January through December, not single winter seasons, so each number blends the tail end of one winter with the start of the next. Over these 10 years Madison averaged right around 45.6 inches, a bit under its 51.8-inch 30-year normal, which is itself built from a longer and somewhat snowier stretch of the record.

When does it usually start snowing in Wisconsin?

Mid-to-late November in the south, earlier in the north, on 30-year NOAA/NWS averages. Our first snow date guide covers the wider region in more detail, including how far the actual date can swing from that average in any single year.

What does this mean for winter travel in Wisconsin?

Plan around the state's real climate record rather than any one forecaster's headline. Our USA winter forecast hub compares NOAA and both almanacs across the whole country, and our Minnesota snow guide covers the same strong-El-Nino winter next door, where the three forecasters split in a similar way.

What are the limits of this forecast data?

A seasonal outlook describes a tendency across an entire winter, not a forecast for any single storm, flight or weekend, and this winter's three sources do not even agree with each other on the basic direction for snow. NOAA and the Old Farmer's Almanac lean below normal, the Farmers' Almanac leans above average, and Wisconsin's own record includes a severe storm, the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, that hit during an El Nino winter despite the seasonal odds.

We have not merged the three sources into one number, and nothing in this guide predicts a specific snowfall total for 2026-2027. For a seasonal outlook to matter for a specific trip, check the National Weather Service's short-range forecast for Wisconsin closer to your travel date rather than relying on any seasonal outlook alone.

Quick answers about Wisconsin's winter 2026-2027

Will Wisconsin have a snowy winter in 2026-2027?
Depends which forecaster you ask. NOAA and the Old Farmer's Almanac lean below normal, while the Farmers' Almanac calls Wisconsin above average for snow.

Will Wisconsin get a lot of snow this winter?
Possibly in short, sharp bursts even under a milder seasonal lean. All three sources describe real cold snaps and snowy windows within an otherwise warmer winter.

What kind of winter is predicted for Wisconsin?
A strong El Nino winter, warmer than normal overall, with disagreement among forecasters on whether total snowfall lands above or below normal.

What town gets the most snow in Wisconsin?
Hurley, in the far northern Lake Superior snowbelt, which holds the state's seasonal snowfall record at 295.4 inches, set in 1996-97.

What is Wisconsin's biggest snowstorm on record?
Wisconsin's heaviest single-day snowfall is 26 inches at Neillsville, set on 27 December 1904. For seasonal totals, Hurley's 295.4-inch 1996-97 season is the state record.

Did a major blizzard hit Wisconsin during a past El Nino winter?
Yes. The 1991 Halloween Blizzard dropped over 30 inches on parts of western Wisconsin during an El Nino winter, proof that a milder seasonal lean does not rule out a severe individual storm.